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The Dallas Mavericks will face the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday at the Paycom Center. It’s a Western Conference Semifinals rematch as we share our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Thunder prediction and pick.
It will be the first meeting between the Mavericks and Thunder since the Western Conference Semifinals when the Mavs eliminated the Thunder in six games en route to an NBA Finals run.
It was a completely different scenario from the regular season, where the Thunder went 3-1 against the Mavs. Overall, the Thunder have gone 6-4 in the past 10 regular-season games against the Mavericks and 3-2 over the last five at Paycom Center against the Mavs.
Here are the Mavericks-Thunder NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.Â
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Thunder Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +188
Oklahoma City Thunder: -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -225
Over: 228 (-108)
Under: 228 (-114)
How To Watch Mavericks vs. Thunder
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: KFAA and FDSO
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why the Mavericks Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Mavericks have lost many close games this season, and Luka Doncic cites rebounding woes as the main issue. Unfortunately, they lost the board battle 40-30 in their recent loss to the Utah Jazz. The Mavs also got outrebounded 50-40 by the Golden State Warriors earlier this week and 45-42 in their loss to the Denver Nuggets. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the Mavericks come into this game ranked 21st in rebounds.
Doncic hopes to continue playing well. Ultimately, he did well in the series against the Thunder, averaging 24.7 points and 10.5 rebounds against them. Doncic is the glue that keeps the Mavs together, and he will look to continue giving them the best chances to win. Yet, he needs help. Kyrie Irving will be the next guy the Mavs are looking for to get things going. Significantly, he has averaged 26.5 points per game over 15 games against the Thunder.
Klay Thompson is the newest Maverick in town. Substantially, he has had a great career against the Thunder, averaging 19.1 points over 36 games against them. The Mavs will need more from Daniel Gafford. Overall, he has struggled against the Thunder, averaging just 8.3 points over 12 games in his career against them.
The Mavericks will cover the spread if Doncic, Irving, Thompson, and Gafford can find ways to score and make their shots. Then, they must box out and win the board battle.
Why the Thunder Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Thunder are on fire right now, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains impressive as he continues to spearhead their success. Amazingly, something is going on in Oklahoma City as they come into this game with an 11-2 record.
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If there is one thing the Thunder can improve at, it’s their shooting. So far, they are just 19th in field-goal shooting percentage, including 16th in three-point shooting percentage. Yet, they have made up for it at the charity stripe, ranking second in free-throw shooting percentage. Like the Mavericks, the Thunder have also struggled on the boards, ranking 19th in rebounds.
The Thunder have overcome any of those issues because they have played clean basketball. Amazingly, they rank first in turnovers, as they have been opportunistic and taken advantage of other teams’ struggles. The Thunder are also first in blocked shots.
But blocking shots will become more difficult over the next few games as Chet Holmgren is unavailable. Despite that, Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams can carry the team, as both have been amazing at forcing turnovers. Luguentz Dort has also been a strong contributor, garnering 11.8 points per game and averaging 1.3 steals per contest. These three players have become a fixture in this lineup and give the Thunder the best chance to win.
The Thunder will cover the spread if they can continue forcing turnovers and creating good shots for their three best players on the court. Then, they must contain Doncic and Irving while winning the board battle.
Final Mavericks-Thunder Prediction & Pick
The Mavericks are 5-7-1 against the spread, while the Thunder are 9-4 against the odds. Moreover, the Mavs are 1-3-1 against the spread on the road, while the Thunder are 5-3 against the odds at home. The Mavericks will be on the second of a back-to-back. They are 1-3 against the spread in this scenario. Conversely, the Thunder is 2-1 against the spread in this scenario.
The thing that appeals to me here is the revenge factor. Ultimately, the Thunder fell short of their championship aspirations as they ran into a red-hot Mavericks team last season. They won’t let it happen in this game, as the Thunder take advantage of a tired team and get revenge while covering the spread at home.
Final Mavericks-Thunder Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder: -5.5 (-110)
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