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The Miami Heat will face the Indiana Pacers to close out a two-game series at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse. We’re running it back for a second game in a row as we share our NBA odds series and make a Heat-Pacers prediction and pick.
The Heat rolled over the Pacers 124-111 on Friday night at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse. They had a great second quarter and followed it up with a strong third to take control.
The Pacers now lead the all-time series 74-57. Yet, the Heat are 3-2 over their past five games in Indiana. They will attempt to pull off a quick mini-sweep over the Pacers.
Here are the Heat-Pacers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.Â
NBA Odds: Heat-Pacers Odds
Miami Heat: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +126
Indiana Pacers: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -148
Over: 228.5 (-110)
Under: 228.5 (-110)
How To Watch Heat vs. PacersÂ
Time: 5 PM ET/2 PM PT
TV: FDSI and FDSS
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why the Heat Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Heat are finding ways to stay above ground even with Jimmy Butler out with injury. Breaking down what the Heat did is simple. First, they were on fire from the field, hitting 51.7 percent of their shots. Miami also benefitted from a proportionally big advantage at the free-throw line, having 23 chances, compared to the Pacers’ 11.
The biggest takeaway from the Heat in this game was their ability to pick the pass. Amazingly, the Heat forced 20 turnovers, turning it into 16 steals to help set the tone and gain more possession chances against the Pacers. The turnover difference was the biggest takeaway from this game.
Bam Adebayo capitalized on his chances, scoring 30 points while going 10 for 17 from the field. Also, he nabbed 11 rebounds and had five steals, showcasing how good he could be on both ends of the court. Tyler Herro did well enough to contribute 20 points while shooting 6 for 16. Meanwhile, Kevin Love was probably the best surprise performer. Love finished with 15 points, with most of it coming in an explosive third quarter, to help the Heat wrangle control of this game.
The best thing the Heat did was contain the Pacers. What usually is an explosive offense struggled as Myles Turner struggled, with just nine points while shooting 3 for 7. The Heat dominated when the benches faced off, forcing backup forward Jarace Walker to turn the ball over seven times.
The Heat will cover the spread if Adebayo and Herro continue scoring at will. Likewise, they must continue to play suffocating defense and force turnovers.
Why the Pacers Could Cover the Spread/Win
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The Pacers stumbled and bumbled on Friday, and Rick Carlisle was unhappy with his team’s performance. After starting off well, the Pacers completely floundered in the second quarter and continued the downward trajectory in the final stanza.
It was a quiet night for the starters. Unfortunately, no one helped Tyrese Haliburton or Pascal Siakam, as they were the only reliable starters on the court. Turner struggled, and Bennedict Mathurin and Ben Sheppard both could not keep the pace. Likewise, except Obi Tobbin, the bench was abysmal, accounting for 15 of the team’s 20 total turnovers.
The Pacers shot the ball well, hitting 51.2 percent of their shots, including 40 percent of their chances from beyond the arc. They also won the board battle and blocked four shots. Unfortunately, turnovers were a problem and something the Pacers need to work on if they want to have a chance to win this game.
The Pacers will cover the spread if Haliburton and Siakam can get some help from Turner and the rest of their starters and play a clean game. Then, the bench must avoid making the critical mistakes that doomed them in front of their loyal supporters.
Final Heat-Pacers Prediction & Pick
The Heat are now 5-6 against the spread after covering against the Pacers the other night. Likewise, the Pacers are now 6-6 against the odds. The Heat are still doing well on the road, as they are 5-2 against the spread away from home. Meanwhile, the Pacers are now 3-2 against the odds at home. The big win put the Heat at 3-4 against the spread against the Eastern Conference, while the Pacers fell to 5-5 against the odds at home.
Who wins this showdown? Using last season as a template, the Heat beat the Pacers in the first game of a two-game series on November 30, 2023. Then, the Pacers bounced back to win the second game on December 2, 2023. While events from last season don’t always correlate, they often showcase a pattern. I expect something similar this time around as the Pacers bounce back and avoid a mini-sweep to cover the spread.
Final Heat-Pacers Prediction & Pick: Indiana Pacers -2.5 (-110)
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